Blackjack Strategien – Wahrscheinlichkeiten

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At first glance, blackjack looks like a very simple game that you can play in the live casinocan play. . Indeed, the rules of the game are very easy to learn. But that’s not nearly enough to master the game. Knowing the rules is just the prerequisite. In this game you have to reckon with the probable in many game situations. For example, with the probability that you will outbid yourself with a new card. In Skat you would say “overwrought”. Or that the dealer outbids himself. Of course, it is tempting to let your instincts guide you and make your decisions at the table according to your feelings. The “kick” of this type of game is of course to challenge your luck – unfortunately this usually leads to a total loss of the betting budget during longer sessions.

If you want to become a master of blackjack, you need to understand the probability of the different scenarios. You have to realistically assess your possibilities and chances and play accordingly. In addition, it is important to understand the reason why the house generally has an advantage over the player. This is the only way you can see how you can best counter this house edge with clever play. Indeed, you can.

In the following article we will go into the basics of an optimal blackjack strategy , also known as a basic strategy . We take a look at why the house has an advantage in the first place and what the player’s advantages are. We discuss the importance of probability in some scenarios and how you can improve your game with reasonable assumptions about alternative moves. In short, we explain everything you need to know about the basic strategy. Our goal is to further your understanding of blackjack and to emphasize the importance of calculating with likely outcomes.

In this game, the cool computer has a clear advantage; in contrast to the passionate player, he can sometimes make something out of a weak hand. With the knowledge from this article, you can improve your blackjack decisions in a sustainable way, and your chances of your next real money game will be far better.

Der Hausvorteil beim Blackjack

As with all games in the casino, the house also has an advantage over the players when it comes to blackjack. Even if you become an absolute blackjack master and each of your decisions is well thought out and perfectly calculated, the casino will always stay ahead in the long run. Only when you play the game to a very high level and learn to count the cards can you stand up to the house from time to time.

Why the house always has an advantage is, in principle, very simple: You are the first to move. Whenever you take a card and outbid yourself with it, which happens 28% of all cases, you automatically lose, even if the dealer then outbids himself as well. This gives the house a huge advantage that cannot be easily compensated for.

Although the house always has the staying power in the end, there are a few ways we can limit the house edge. The house has an average of 8% advantage over the players. With the help of the basic strategy, this advantage can be reduced to 0.2-0.5% – almost balanced. How far actually depends on the rules of the game at the table. In order to achieve such a quota, you need to mercilessly exploit the advantages for gamblers. And, of course, you need to be lucky enough to judge the likely course of the game.

House edge blackjack

Die Vorteile des Spielers beim Blackjack

Although the dealer has the great advantage of always acting second after you, as a player you have some choices that the dealer does not. With a little skill you can make life extremely difficult for the dealer and significantly reduce the house edge in this way.

  • Whenever we hit 21 straight away and have a blackjack, we get a 3: 2 payout (2.5 times our stake = 1x the stake back and 1.5x the stake as a win). Unless the dealer also has 21. In which case we just get our stake back.
  • We have a few options available for the hand. We can always stand on our hand or draw another card while the dealer does not have this option. He has to take another card for every card value up to 16, at the risk of outbidding himself. If he has 17 or more, he has to stop.
  • We are allowed to double our stake if it is to our advantage. This is how you can sometimes make a higher profit.
  • We can split pairs and thus upgrade weak starting hands or take advantage of weaker starting cards at the dealer.
  • In some variants there is the option of giving up your starting hand early and getting half the stake back. In the long run, this will limit our losses. The dealer does not have this option.

Die Wichtigkeit von Wahrscheinlichkeiten

The key to becoming a successful blackjack player is understanding probabilities and odds. No matter what cards we were dealt and how the game is, we always have to keep an eye on our chances of winning and the probability of outbidding and weigh them against each other.

To start, let’s take a look at the statistical probability that we will outbid each other if we draw another card:

Probability of outbidding yourself on another card
Hand value probability
11 or less 0%
12th 31%
13th 39%
14th 56%
15th 58%
16 62%
17th 69%
18th 77%
19th 85%
20th 92%
21 100%

Wie Sie anhand der Tabelle erkennen können, wächst die Wahrscheinlichkeit, sich zu überbieten, je höher der Handwert bereits ist. Das ist sogar ohne Tabelle einzusehen. Interessant sind die Zahlen dennoch, wenn man die Wahrscheinlichkeit betrachtet, dass der Dealer sich überbietet.

Der Spieler zählt das Ass immer mit 1 oder 11 Punkten. Der Dealer muss das Ass mit 11 Punkten zählen, außer wenn er damit die 21 überschreitet. Dann darf er das Ass mit 1 Punkt zählen. Wie gesagt, muss der Dealer bei jedem Kartenwert bis 16 eine weitere Karte nehmen. Hat er 17 und mehr, muss er stehen bleiben. Einige Casinos haben die Regel, dass der Dealer bei einer harten 17 (ein Blatt ohne Ass, also z.B. Bild + 7) stehen bleiben muss, bei einer weichen 17 („soft“ ist ein Blatt mit Ass, also z.B. Ass + 6) jedoch eine weitere Karte nehmen oderstehen bleiben kann. Es kommt sogar vor, dass in einem Casino an unterschiedlichen Tischen verschiedene Regeln gelten. Ein Überbieten des Dealers hängt selbstverständlich von seiner Startkarte ab. Die exakte Wahrscheinlichkeit wird auch durch die Spielregeln am Tisch bestimmt.  In der folgenden Tabelle finden Sie die Wahrscheinlichkeiten für beide Spielregeln:

Die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass der Dealer sich überbietet
Karte Dealer Wahrscheinlichkeit, wenn er auf 17soft stehen bleibt Wahrscheinlichkeit, wenn er bei 17soft eine weitere Karte zieht
Ass 17 % 20 %/td>
2 35 % 36 %
3 37 % 38 %
4 40 % 40 %
5 42 % 42 %
6 42 % 44 %
7 26 % 26 %
8 24 % 24 %
9 23 % 23 %
23 % 23 %

Der Spieler darf so lange eine weitere Karte ziehen, bis er stehen bleiben möchte, weil er an 21 nahe genug dran zu sein glaubt, bis er 21 erreicht oder sich überboten hat. Es ist ziemlich einfach zu erkennen, dass es für den Spieler bei einer 12 in der Hand fast immer richtig sein wird, eine weitere Karte zu ziehen. Schließlich ist die 12 ein sehr geringer Handwert, und mehr als Zweidrittel aller Karten im Stapel verbessern die Hand. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit, sich zu überbieten, ist gering. Und: Obwohl unsere Hand schwach ist, kann es durchaus sein, dass der Dealer eine genauso schwache Hand hat (z.B. eine Sechs). Das würde bedeuten, es besteht eine gute Chance, dass sich der Dealer überbietet. Diese Chance muss man ihm lassen! Sich einzig und allein auf seine eigenen Karten zu konzentrieren, ist ein weit verbreiteter Fehler. Die Möglichkeit, dass der Dealer sich überbietet, muss man immer im Auge behalten.

Wie Sie in der Tabelle auch sehen können, besteht eine 42 – 44%ige Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass der Dealer sich überbietet, wenn er eine Sechs hat. Die Chancen stehen also nicht schlecht. Ein kluger Rechner könnte hier die Entscheidung treffen, auf einer harten 12 stehen zu bleiben (eine 12 ohne Ass auf der Hand), wenn der Dealer eine Sechs hält. Die Ausnahme ist, wenn wir eine 12 haben, die aus zwei Sechsen besteht. Dann wäre eine Teilung unseres Paares besser. Auf lange Sicht werden wir bei diesem Szenario leider immer Verlust machen. Doch wenn wir uns an die Wahrscheinlichkeit bestimmter Ergebnisse halten und auf unserer Hand stehen bleiben, werden wir weniger Geld verlieren.

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Die Reihenfolge der Basisstrategie

As mentioned earlier, the player has a few options to reduce the house edge a little in his favor. However, not all options are available at the same time. We cannot use them all together, but have to adhere to a certain sequence in order to play the best possible basic strategy. Below are the questions that you should ask yourself for each hand in exactly this order.

1. Can I / should I give up my hand ( buzzing )?

If the table you are playing at offers this option, this is the very first decision you should make. It is only possible to give up a hand if you have not already made another decision. If the table you are currently playing at does not offer this option, or if the answer to the question is ‘no’, then you can ask yourself the next question:

2. Can / should I share my hand

This option is only available to you if you have received a pair or two cards with the value of 10 as your starting hand. If so, then you have to wonder whether or not it would be to your advantage to split. If you can’t share or it’s not beneficial, ask yourself this question:

3. Can I / should I double my hand ?

When the odds of winning the hand are good for you, doubling up is an excellent way to double up on a win. This variant is not available for all starting hands and always depends on the rules of the game at the table. Nevertheless, you should definitely ask yourself this question. If the answer to that is no, the last thing to ask yourself is:

4. Should I stop (stand) or take another card (hit)?

It is tempting and easy for many players to just ask yourself this question at the beginning. However, taking another card or standing still is the last question to ask yourself. First of all, you should think about the first three questions. But it is by no means unimportant. In most cases the answer to the first three questions will be no. Then, to play the perfect basic strategy, it comes down to whether you answer the answer to this last question correctly. So you have to ask yourself whether there is any benefit to you in taking another card or standing still and hoping that the dealer will outbid himself.

Lernen Sie mehr über die Basisstrategie

Hopefully, with the information in this article, we have given you a basic understanding of basic strategy and the importance of your assumptions about the likely game and possible outcomes in blackjack. You have to watch your hand and that of the dealer and decide whether your hand is so bad that you see no chance, or whether there is some way of defeating the dealer with some feint. You now know what the basic strategy is based on and how you can use it to achieve better results in the long term and avoid unnecessary losses. Unfortunately, this is not a guarantee of success, but with a bit of luck you can avoid losing gaming sessions.

Blackjack table

Do you want to master blackjack? Then observe the following rules: A good player is no more lucky than others. But he avoids indiscriminate and thoughtless betting. He gives up hopeless hands in good time because in most cases you won’t bring in anything anyway. He’s not chasing losses. He weighs the potential gain against the risk he will have to take. He always tries to tease a little more out of promising leaves. And he handles methods such as “surrender”, “split” and “double” variably in order to limit any losses where they cannot be avoided. No strategy can conjure up happiness either. But he knows: the true master shows himself in avoiding high losses.

Now is the time to dig deeper and learn all about basic strategy. Learn when it is computationally correct to give up your hand better, when to split a hand and when not, when the right time has come to double up, and last but not least, when it is right to take another card. and when it is better to stick to your current hand value.