Blackjack Odds, Strategies & Probabilities

Blackjack Odds

On the face of it, blackjack is one of the more simple games to get to grips with at the casino, with the aim being to get closer to 21 than the dealer. However, the reason why blackjack remains one of the most popular games at Mr Green is that these strategies can be applied. Unlike purely luck-based games like roulette and slots, there is an optimum way to play the table game and swing the blackjack odds in your favour.

Of course, this isn’t a simple task by any means, with you needing to get to grips with blackjack strategy. So, consider this page to be your introduction to online casino blackjack odds and the basics of optimal strategy. Once you’ve built this foundational understanding, you’ll be able to grow your blackjack strategy repertoire in real money games gradually.

Blackjack odds and the house edge

Every single casino game that you’ll find online or on the Mr Green app has a house edge. It’s how running a casino can be a business, with players taking on the house by trying to win regardless. So, even if you master blackjack strategy, the fine line that swings the overall odds marginally in favour of the house will eventually have its say. Still, deploying optimal blackjack strategy and even learning to count cards can give you a slight advantage over the state of play.

At the blackjack table, two key aspects add to the house edge. The first is the odds. Standard practice is for a winning hand to return 1/1 while blackjack pays 3/2. Being at a table with returns less than these is to your disadvantage. The other element will stay true regardless of the table odds, and it’s that you make your decision first. As roughly 28% of draws result in players exceeding 21 (going bust), even if the dealer goes bust after, you’ve already lost.

For blackjack odds, the house edge is mostly determined by the player’s correct or incorrect decisions under the edict of basic strategy. Generally speaking, the house edge at a standard blackjack will be close to 8%, but by applying the blackjack strategy, that number sinks to 0.5% or lower. By using the information available at the table, the basic strategy mathematically allows you to make the correct call more often than not.

Understanding your advantages in blackjack

Strategy is based on using the information and advantages given to the player to their advantage, turning the blackjack odds more in your favour. Making the most of each opportunity under the rules of blackjack strategy helps to reduce the already quite slim house edge to a finer margin.

Most Mr Green blackjack tables offer 3/2 odds on blackjack, which is an increase on the standard 1:1 win payout. This gives you an advantage if you get blackjack and the dealer doesn’t.
The dealer is fixed to the rules of the table, such as being forced to draw up to 17 or stand on soft 17, even if they could win with a lower value hand. As the player, you get to choose if you want to split pairs, double down, or draw based on the information available.
When the situation is ideal, according to basic strategy, the double down option allows you to quickly capitalize and get ahead of the blackjack odds.
Where available, the surrender option can also keep the bankroll going in less ideal situations, with the option returning half of your bet.
Splitting pairs can also help you to capitalize on a weaker dealer hand as well as give you a boost should your hand be anything less than two nines.

The importance of odds: Knowing probabilities is key to blackjack success

Blackjack strategy is forged by probability. In its rawest form, you learn the probability of a favourable outcome based on your hand and the dealer’s face-up card. Basic strategy covers all possible outcomes for the start of a round, showing you where you can afford to take another card and where the risk of going bust is too great.

Probability of going bust by drawing another card
The Value of the hand	Probability
11 or lower	0%
12	31%
13	39%
14	56%
15	58%
16	62%
17	69%
18	77%
19	85%
20	92%
21	100%

As the table above shows, the higher the value of your hand, the greater the likelihood is of you going bust by drawing another card. While you would have known this already, it may not have been as clear as the above, where even drawing on 14 gives less than a 50-50 chance of staying in the game. The blackjack odds displayed above do alter slightly depending on the dealer’s rules on a soft 17, as shown below:

Dealer’s probability of going bust
Dealers card	Probability of stopping at 17s	Probability on moves of 17s
Ace	17%	20%
2	35%	36%
3	37%	38%
4	40%	40%
5	42%	42%
6	42%	44%
7	26%	26%
8	24%	24%
9	23%	23%
10	23%	23%

When calculating your blackjack odds, or drawing from the tables above, it’s essential to consider the dealer’s face-up card just as much as you do your own hand.

For example, you may be inclined to draw if your hand has a value of 13, but it does have a 39% chance of going bust. If you then look to the dealer’s card and see a four, five, or six, they have between a 40 and 44% chance of going bust themselves.

Just on this basic understanding of the dealer potentially going bust, you could hedge your bet and wait out the dealer – after all, you also win if the dealer goes bust and you remain.

Should I surrender?

This is only offered when you’re given your hand. if the table offers the surrender option, this is what you need to consider first.

Should I split my hand?

If you’ve been dealt a pair or a hand to the value of ten, you’ll have the option to split. Basic strategy will inform you if a split is beneficial in your situation; just remember that sometimes it isn’t the optimum move.

Should I double down?

The rules differ between tables, but if strategy shows that the blackjack odds are in your favour, choosing to double down should be your next decision.

Should I sit or draw?

Finally, once you’ve considered the above, apply blackjack strategy to make the move that has the highest probability of keeping you in the game and getting you closer to a winning hand.

It’s time to study basic strategy

After being able to understand the standard rules of blackjack odds probability above, you’ll have the foundational mindset to be able to immerse yourself in basic strategy. There are a lot of charts that you need to memorize, but basic blackjack strategy does give you an advantage when you make the optimal decisions.

Once you’ve mastered the art of Blackjack, Mr Green Canada also offers other table games such as: