Blackjack Odds

Blackjack odds, strategies and probabilities explained at Mr Green!

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Blackjack Odds

Blackjack is a classic casino table game with a large fan base. Unlike other online table games based on luck, blackjack is largely a game of skill. To win, you have to understand the strategic elements of blackjack. While there is still an element of chance, you must know how to respond to different hands. For instance, you should know when to pull back or play more aggressively. In blackjack, you take your place at the table and get two cards, both facing up. The dealer also gets two cards, but only one is facing up. You hit or stand with every rotation until the game ends. Aside from understanding the game’s rules, it is important to understand blackjack odds and the house edge in blackjack.

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Blackjack Odds and Probabilities Explained

Before putting down real money on a blackjack game, familiarise yourself with the blackjack odds of various variants. You don’t need advanced maths skills to understand the odds. The terms odds and probability are often used interchangeably in blackjack betting. Blackjack probability tells you the possibility of winning the game. In online casino games, players can only use probability when the game has a finite number of card combinations. In casino games driven by random numbers, such as slots, you cannot use probability to determine your chances of winning. However, blackjack with finite card combinations allows anyone with maths skills to lay out odds and probabilities.
Blackjack odds represent the chance of winning. That’s why they are calculated using the probability of winning and losing. In online casinos, odds don’t always express the chance of winning but also the payout for each wager. The difference between odds and probability is that the former shows chance while the latter shows the potential payout.
The odds of winning an online blackjack game are as high as 42.22%. That doesn’t mean the house has a 57.78% chance of winning. In addition, 8.48% of blackjack games end in a push, making the loss probability equal to 49.10%. Blackjack odds fluctuate depending on the variant, player rules, dealer rules and strategy.
If you want to keep the odds in your favour and increase your winning chances, control the house edge. You cannot influence the house edge figure of any casino. However, you can tip the odds in your favour by choosing an online casino with a good return to player (RTP) percentage. You must also pick a blackjack variant with the best odds for players. For instance, the probability of winning in classic blackjack is 42.22%. While Blackjack Switch has similar chances of winning, the house edge for Switch is lower compared to classic blackjack. You can also turn the blackjack odds in your favour by using a decent strategy.

House edge blackjack

Blackjack House Edge Explained

If you’ve already played table games at an online casino, you probably know about house edge and are always on the lookout for games with a lower house edge. What’s the house edge in blackjack?
House edge refers to the casino’s advantage over the player. It usually calculates the player’s expected value in relation to their wager amount. For instance, if you expect to earn $97 in a $100 bet, the house edge is 3%. Determining the house edge in other table games is simpler since it’s easy to know the average wins and losses over multiple trials. In blackjack, determining the house edge is challenging because you have to keep up with the expected outcome for every situation.
The house edge depends on the rules, game variation and the player’s decision. For instance, if you make the best move in every situation, the house edge will range from 0.5% to 1%. However, inexperienced players who guess the correct play for every situation increase the house edge to between 2% and 4%. Since blackjack has the lowest house edge over other popular games, it is a top choice for fans of casino table games.
Game conditions and blackjack rules can dramatically vary from one casino to another, changing the house edge. If you are playing a single-deck game, the house edge differs when you switch to an eight-deck game. Other game conditions that can change the house edge include whether you double down after splitting and the chances of the dealer hitting instead of standing at a soft 17. Understanding the effects of blackjack game conditions can help you choose games with better payouts. For instance, if you are not allowed to double after splitting, the house edge increases by 0.14%, and when you play with eight decks instead of one, the edge increases by 0.61%.

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Blackjack RTP

Online casino table games are carefully crafted to entertain players while guaranteeing the house a statistical advantage. The advantage is calculated on the ratio of accepted wagers to paid-out bets. The payout percentage is called the return to player (RTP). The RTP indicates the amount paid out as winnings, calculated from the total bets. The house’s statistical advantage in blackjack odds is the house edge and represents the profit margin on a gambling product. From the house edge, you can get the RTP by subtracting the house edge from the total value. If the RTP is lower, your odds are also lower.
Depending on the online casino and the game variation, blackjack RTP values can vary. Online casinos also introduce and remove rules to keep the RTP below 100%. For instance, software providers will choose the rules that influence the game’s odds, such as the blackjack payouts, the number of decks and gaming strategies. The blackjack payout has the highest influence on the RTP. The standard payout for a blackjack hand has always been 3:2. Changing the payout to 6:5 reduces the RTP by 1.3%. The number of decks also influences the RTP. The baseline RTP in blackjack is played with a single deck. As the number of decks increases, the RTP reduces. For instance, the RTP reduces by 0.66% with eight decks, lowering your potential payout.
Most blackjack variants also have side bets. While side bets can build up the thrill of the game, they have lower odds than blackjack games. For instance, standard blackjack has an RTP of 99%, but with side bets, the RTP falls to 90% or lower. A side bet of 21+3 has a maximum payout of 100:1; the theoretical RTP is 92.86%, while perfect pairs have an RTP of 93.89%. While the payouts are attractive, blackjack odds can reduce the payouts.

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Odds of Winning Blackjack

If you are a regular blackjack player, there are a few hands that you will find difficult to win. These hands usually happen at the right time, but players often freeze and are uncertain about what to do. Explore the hands through the lens of odds & probability and the blackjack strategy to use.

  • Hard 16: A hard 16 is usually a difficult hand for blackjack players to decide on the next move. Many players prefer to stand since the value is too close to a bust. When using basic blackjack strategies, you hit if the dealer shows a 7 or 8. If the dealer has a 9 or 10, consider surrendering. The probability of busting may be high, but it is lower than the chances of the dealer ending up with a 17 or more.
  • Player 12 vs dealer 4: If your hand value is 12, the odds of winning are low since you can hit a ten and bust. When the dealer puts up a 4, it makes your choices difficult because you have a 60% chance of losing the hand. Your best bet is to stand and wait for the dealer to bust or risk a hit since your chance of going bust is lower than the dealer’s.
  • Player 15 vs dealer 10: This is a less favourable hand in blackjack since the odds are stacked against you. Regardless of your move, the dealer has a higher chance of winning. For instance, if you hit, you have a 22% chance of victory. Meanwhile, standing has a slightly higher probability of winning at 23%.
  • Player 12 vs dealer 3: While the hand isn’t as risky as the 12 vs 4, it is still worrisome. Your chances of busting are reduced, so you can hit at least once.

Common Mistakes

Many people underestimate the value of house edge and ignore its role in payouts. For instance, when the house edge is low, you have a higher chance of winning, and vice versa when the house edge is high. Besides paying attention to the house edge, players need to improve their skills and use a reliable blackjack strategy. Many gamers will play without considering their actions or relying on any blackjack strategies.


Blackjack games require good skills and a solid understanding of blackjack strategies to increase your chances of winning. Since blackjack has the best house edge among online casino table games, players have a better chance of winning. Learning about blackjack odds and blackjack probabilities can help you understand your chances of winning or losing, depending on your actions.

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It’s time to study basic strategy

After being able to understand the standard rules of blackjack odds probability above, you’ll have the foundational mindset to be able to immerse yourself in basic strategy. There are a lot of charts that you need to memorize, but basic blackjack strategy does give you an advantage when you make the optimal decisions.

Once you’ve mastered the art of Blackjack, Mr Green also offers other table games such as:

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