Die Zahlen hinter „Paare teilen“
There are three great reasons to split your pairs. All boil down to a reduced house edge. The first reason is to split a hand with a good chance of winning into two hands with a good chance of winning. The second reason is to reduce losses in the long run when the odds would be even worse without division. The third reason is to split a hand with a poor chance of winning into two hands with better prospects. Let’s look together at the examples that illustrate each case.
Multiply the profit on promising hands
Suppose you are sitting at a game table where eight decks of cards are used and the rules do not allow doubling after splitting. You are dealt hands 9-9 while the dealer has a 6. Your hand value is 18 and is in a good starting position against the dealer’s 6. If you just stand on the hand in this case, you will win 64% of the time. If you get into this position 100 times and bet € 1 each time, you would earn an average of € 28 profit. You would win 64 out of 100 times and earn € 64, – while you lose 36 times and have a loss of € 36, -. The difference between the two amounts is € 28.00 (€ 64.00 – € 36.00).
Although this is a nice win, if you split your starting hand, you can
earn an average of € 40 in net profit over 100 rounds, which is € 12 more. By dividing the pair, the chances of winning your one hand deteriorate from 64% to 60%. But since you now have a 60% chance of winning twice, you win more in the long run.
If you play the hand 100 times, you will win an average of 60 times. But since you are now playing two hands, you will make a profit of € 120 (€ 2 * 60). The remaining 40 times you will lose and if you bet twice you will lose a total of € 80 (€ 2 * 40). This results in a profit of € 40.00 (€ 120.00 – € 80.00). That is € 12, – more than in our previous calculation, in which you stopped and only won € 28, -.
Reduce losses in hopeless hands
You continue to play at the 8 deck table, but this time you are dealt a 7-7 hand while the dealer has a 2. Her hand value of 14 is not very promising. On average, with this constellation you will lose 64% of all cases and only win 36%. If you play 100 such hands and always bet € 1, you will end up losing € 28
(€ 36 – € 64).
If you split your pair, you will get two hands with a value of 7. While you still have a poor chance of winning the hand, your odds have improved compared to the situation before the split. On average you will lose 55% of your games in this constellation and win 45% of them. Because of the division, you had to place an additional bet on the table. So in this example you are betting € 2. This means that in 100 hands you would win € 90 (€ 2 * 45) and lose € 110 (€ 2 * 55). This results in a total loss of € 20 (€ 90 – € 110). Compared to the € 28 you would lose if the pair were not split, you make € 8 less loss.
Turning bad chance hands into good chance hands
Let’s say you continue to sit at the same table and get 7-7 again. But this time the dealer has a 6. Although the 6 is better for you than the 2 in the previous example, your chances of winning are still slim. In the long run, you will lose money with this combination. On average, you will win the hand 42% of the time and lose the other 58%. If you play 100 hands with a € 1 stake, you will lose an average of € 16 (€ 42 – € 58).
However, by dividing the sevens, you can change the edge in your favor. In this case you would no longer have a card value of 14 in front of you, but two times the 7. In the long run, the 7 wins against the 6 from the dealer. After the split, you have a 52% chance of winning the hand. 48% of the time, you will lose. Since you have to place an additional bet, you will win an average of € 104.00 (€ 2.00 * 52) and lose € 96.00 (€ 2.00 * 48). This results in a total profit of € 8.00 (€ 104.00 – € 96.00). By splitting your hand, you turned a € 16 loss into a profit of € 8.