Basketball betting strategy: a guide

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Basketball is one of the most exciting sports on the planet thanks to its end-to-end, high scoring nature – you’ll never find a drab basketball match to watch. Like many other American sports, the intensive statistical focus on this five-a-side game also makes it one of the most popular sports betting markets around.

As you can imagine, modern online bookmakers such as Mr Green offer every type of basketball betting market you could think of. But the real question remains: can you use basketball statistics or your own knowledge of the sport to garner an advantage to create a profitable basketball betting strategy of your very own? In the following sections, we’ll find out.

Trust Yourself

As is the case with most markets out there, the real value can be found by avoiding the most popular basketball markets and instead of trusting your own instinct and knowledge. Perhaps a team has been on a terrible run of results – however, if they’ve been playing the top teams and have actually been playing okay, you may find some value in backing them to turn it around.

What’s more, basketball betting odds – like all sports betting odds – are impacted by the bets that are being placed. If a lot of money is being staked on certain outcomes, the bookmaker will always reduce the odds of that event happening in order to prevent a big financial loss. Indeed, some people with large betting bankrolls have even been known to heavily bet on certain outcomes in order to manipulate the market.

Just because a market is moving, doesn’t mean you have to follow it. Trust yourself and make your own judgements based on what you know, not through the fear of thinking someone else knows something you don’t.

basketball betting

Basketball Statistics

American sports are famous for their love of number-crunching and basketball is no different. Statistics can paint a very clear picture of what is really going on with certain teams or players in the big basketball leagues, so you can use this information to help find an edge for your basketball bets. In particular, turnovers and points scored are a great place to start if you’re looking to break down a team’s performance in order to predict future matches.

Turnovers are an especially important statistic in basketball as the sport is so high-scoring, with most possessions converted into points. Therefore, if teams are better at winning the ball back, they are also more likely to reduce the number of points their opponents score while simultaneously boosting their own tally. Likewise, points scored is also a great indicator of how many shots are successful and therefore how many points a team is likely to pick up.

basketball stats

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Guard Against Hype

With so many eyes on the sport, there’s no shortage of basketball stars that fans simply adore. However, the dazzling effect of stars can distort markets with people tending to bet blindly on “big names” rather than taking a deeper look into the market.

You’ll often find a better value on the less “glamourous” teams rather than blindly backing the most famous teams. Of course, it is true that certain teams like the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers tend to beat lesser-known opposition, but it isn’t always the “dead cert” that some people expect it to be. Shocks happen and you can find some great value in trying to predict them.

basketball betting tactics

Stay Ahead of the Game

As we’ve discussed, there’s no doubt that you can use statistics to improve your basketball betting strategy. One of the best ways to do this is to try and spot trends before others do.

For example, if you spot that a team’s point-scoring rate has been dropping despite them still winning games, you might be wise to bet against them in their upcoming fixtures knowing that their previous results haven’t been particularly convincing, with others not having yet spotted the decline.

In order to put your basketball betting strategy to the test, you can find thousands of basketball betting markets at Mr Green, with odds available on all of the world’s top sporting action.

basketball betting tactics