Profiting from Over/Under Betting

The match outcome market is naturally the soccer market that first-time players usually choose since it is the most understandable. Bettors simply need to decide if they want to back an away win, a home win or a draw. Although exciting, if you’re an advanced bettor, there are more potentially more lucrative betting markets at Mr Green like Over/Under Betting.

The Over Under goals market has plenty going for it, and another one is that there are multiple markets. Bookmakers like Mr Green have all sorts of Over Under markets from which to choose. They begin at Over Under 0.5 and climb as high as Over Under 4.5 goals. The most popular market by far, however, remains the Over Under 2.5 goals market.

Plenty of bettors try to get an edge by looking at scoring averages by examining the recent team history of goals. They then try to use these figures to predict the scores of future games. There may seem to be logic to this train of thought, but it is flawed. First, the statistics are affected by outliers, such as a high scoring game or two, which can inflate the numbers. Furthermore, this betting strategy doesn’t take into account anything that may have changed, such as injuries, affecting the results.

Again we look across the Atlantic to Liverpool for our next example. Let’s say Liverpool and its opponents combined for 45 goals in Liverpool’s 15 Premier League matches leading to an average 3 goals/match. The figure would suggest backing Over in the Over/Under 2.5 goals market. However, consider if two games ended in a score of 4-2. If we were to ignore these outliers, we would end up with 33 goals in 13 games for an average of 2.54 goals/match. The urge to bet Over now loses much of its lustre.

Like any other type of betting, the more homework you do before making your bet, the more your chances of winning improve. A seasoned Over Under bettor will look at more than just goals scored. After all, there are plenty of other stats to dissect to get a better picture of what a team is capable of. Some of these stats might include the goal conversion rate or shots on goal, giving you the edge you need when playing at Mr Green Sportsbook.