Profiting from Over/Under Betting

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European football or soccer, as we know it in Canada, is probably the most popular sport on the planet. You can find it in almost any corner of the world, from schoolyards to amateur and professional leagues. Not a week goes by without hundreds of soccer matches, offering bettors a broad spectrum of betting options. At Mr Green Casino, we provide a full complement of betting options. Amongst these are the Over Under betting market. If you’re an online betting novice, we’ll help you to get your head out of the books and into the game faster!

Over/Under Betting: What is it?

The match outcome market is naturally the soccer market that first-time players usually choose since it is the most understandable. Bettors simply need to decide if they want to back an away win, a home win or a draw. Although exciting, if you’re an advanced bettor, there are more potentially more lucrative betting markets at Mr Green like Over/Under Betting.

over under betting

Over Under Betting: How does it work?

Over Under betting may sound complicated, but it’s really not. Let’s look at an example of an Over Under 3.0 goals market. Should you believe a particular match will yield, say, 4 goals, you will back ‘Over.’ Conversely, if you think a specific game will produce, say, 2 goals, you will back Under. As you can see, it’s straightforward, and it does not matter who wins or if there’s a draw. You simply need to predict if the total number of goals will be over or under the Over Under goals market.

how over under betting works

Choice is Good!

The Over Under goals market has plenty going for it, and another one is that there are multiple markets. Bookmakers like Mr Green have all sorts of Over Under markets from which to choose. They begin at Over Under 0.5 and climb as high as Over Under 4.5 goals. The most popular market by far, however, remains the Over Under 2.5 goals market.

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Which Over/Under Market will you choose?

According to statistics, the average number of goals in a soccer match comes in the range of 2.4 to 2.6. Of course, the figures will vary according to the league that you’re examining. The odds in the Over/Under 2.5 goals market will be in the vicinity of 2.0 in both Under and Over. In less mainstream markets, you can find bigger odds by, say, backing Over in the Over Under 4.5 goals market.

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The Danger of Scoring Averages

Plenty of bettors try to get an edge by looking at scoring averages by examining the recent team history of goals. They then try to use these figures to predict the scores of future games. There may seem to be logic to this train of thought, but it is flawed. First, the statistics are affected by outliers, such as a high scoring game or two, which can inflate the numbers. Furthermore, this betting strategy doesn’t take into account anything that may have changed, such as injuries, affecting the results.

Again we look across the Atlantic to Liverpool for our next example. Let’s say Liverpool and its opponents combined for 45 goals in Liverpool’s 15 Premier League matches leading to an average 3 goals/match. The figure would suggest backing Over in the Over/Under 2.5 goals market. However, consider if two games ended in a score of 4-2. If we were to ignore these outliers, we would end up with 33 goals in 13 games for an average of 2.54 goals/match. The urge to bet Over now loses much of its lustre.

over under average

Occurrences are the better Strategy

Rather than looking at scoring averages, which includes skewed results, a better way to predict the number of future goals is to examine historical occurrences. Determine the number of times that the number of goals has exceeded and been less than 2.5 goals. If Liverpool managed to score more than 2.5 goals in only 5 of the 15 Premier League matches, the chances are they are less likely to score more than 2.5 goals. In this scenario, it would be better to back Under.

over under ocurrences

Do your homework!

Like any other type of betting, the more homework you do before making your bet, the more your chances of winning improve. A seasoned Over Under bettor will look at more than just goals scored. After all, there are plenty of other stats to dissect to get a better picture of what a team is capable of. Some of these stats might include the goal conversion rate or shots on goal, giving you the edge you need when playing at Mr Green Sportsbook.

over under profits