If you’ve been a football fan for a long time, you probably know about the differences between the Premier League and the Bundesliga. You certainly know a lot of the details and internals of your favorite teams. But is that enough to make money with football betting? Unfortunately, no! Football bets are the most popular sports betting and are therefore extremely competitive. In order to be successful with football betting at Mr Green in the long term, you need a well thought-out strategy. Inexperienced and experienced players should get an idea of your gaming behavior over time, i.e. how they behave in the different game situations without being aware of it – and how they could possibly behave better and more sensibly.
Before you place a soccer bet, you need to first familiarize yourself with the basics. These are the things that everyone needs to have on the screen. The most obvious thing should be the current form of a team. But if you don’t just look at the past results of both teams before a match, but dig a little deeper, you will find out that, for example, a team is in good shape despite a defeat and only lost in the previous game due to bad luck or a wrong decision . Read the match reports and get a detailed overview.
Is a team getting better and better or is it slowly waning? Are individual players still not 100% fit again after injuries? Is the team using its potential? Test your findings against the next games!
Next, you should look at the teams’ home and away records. Home teams typically enjoy an advantage of 0.4-0.6 goals per game. However, this can vary greatly in individual cases. The style of play of some teams gives them an advantage away from home, some prefer defending and fast counterattacking, for example. But at home you have to play the game yourself and you have problems with it. Other teams, on the other hand, live from the encouragement of their own spectators and play combative and dynamic football at home. The enthusiasm of the local audience gives these teams additional impetus. Such facts can be crucial to your betting strategy.
The results in the last games of the two teams should not be underestimated either. What happened the last time they met? Has a team always been superior? However, you shouldn’t look too far back into the past in these analyzes. Players and especially coaches are constantly being exchanged and a team can change a lot within a few years! The analysis of the last clashes can give you a good insight into the tactical direction of both teams in a direct duel, and how this could affect the upcoming game.
You should also collect as much ‘inside information’ as you can. Did a key player appear noticeably listless during the training week, or is his movement not yet smooth after an injury? Was there a confrontation between two players or between a player and the coach – and does the culprit have to sit in the stands at the weekend? Are parts of the team infected with the flu virus? These are all things that you should find out about. Footballers are only humans and not machines. Overuse in sports or problems in the private sphere can also have a strong influence on a player’s performance, reduce motivation and thus affect the entire team.
In addition to these basic things, you should understand one particular aspect of all sports betting. In English it is referred to as ‘value’. Here and in the following, we will always use the technical term value, because the word ‘value’ does not help to clarify this. Finding a bet with good value means: Based on certain information you are of the opinion that individual odds from the bookmakers are too high or too low. This means that you estimate the actual value of a certain bet higher or lower.
All odds express the probability of certain outcomes. Therefore, when assessing the value of a bet, it is important to determine the probability of the occurrence of a certain result or to assess it differently. This assessment can turn out to be right or wrong – so it is a completely subjective value.
Let’s say Chelsea’s odds for a win against Barcelona are 4.0. This corresponds to a chance of victory of 25%. If you think Chelsea’s odds are closer to 33% and should therefore be 3.0, you have found a bet with good value. You rate Chelsea’s chances of winning higher than the bookmaker, so you can benefit from its 4.0 odds because you yourself consider 3.0 odds to be more realistic. Only if your assessment of Chelsea’s chances is correct, of course. How you rate opportunities is entirely up to you. It is therefore important to understand that a successful bettor is not only looking for winners and losers, but for bets with the best value. These insights and your path to get there are part of your personal strategy.
The over / under 2.5 goals bet is one of the most popular football bets at Mr Green. With this bet you have to weigh up whether more or less than 2.5 goals will be scored in a game. There are a few strategies you can use to make the most of this bet. You should look at the average goals scored by both teams to predict how many goals more than 2.5 will be scored in a clash between the two teams. The value of 2.5 goals, which may seem strange to you, was chosen so that your tip is clearly above or below because you can only bet on whole goals. This is to avoid a tie (tie).
Take a look at previous games for both teams. How many games you want to watch depends on your patience. A larger number of games may allow a deeper insight. However, any tactic changes and form curves of players are not taken into account. A smaller number of games, on the other hand, can be strongly influenced by one or two outliers. In addition to counting the goals scored, also count the number of times more or less than 2.5 goals were scored in the games between the two teams.
For example, if Frankfurt plays against Hoffenheim, you could find out beforehand that half of all Hoffenheim games this season have scored more than 2.5 goals, but only a quarter of the games that Frankfurt has played. Add the two percentages 50% and 25% (= 75%) and divide the result by two – this gives you a 37.5% probability of more than 2.5 goals per game. Compare this probability with the bookmaker’s actual odds and decide whether a bet on more than 2.5 goals has good value or not.