Odds and Strategies for Eurovision Betting

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A European competition by name, that somehow also includes in Australia, the Eurovision Song Contest is the largest music competition in the world. It’s compulsive viewing for millions of households across the world.

Just to be clear, It’s not American Idol. Or the Voice. It’s Eurovision.

And, unlike the two aforementioned contests, Eurovision operates on a model that’s more similar to an international sporting tournament. While the absence of a Simon Cowell like figure may alienate North American audiences, the fervour of competition and the subtle political undertones is weirdly addicting. It’s a must-watch television.

Like all competitions, there’s a great deal of action available for bettors of all ilks. In this guide, we’ll go through the key aspects of the competition, strategies to consider when evaluating Eurovision odds, and why we think Australia might not be the best selection in this year’s contest.

Let’s get started!

Eurovision betting - an introduction

Melodifestivalen betting Mr Green

It’s hard to say what makes Eurovision betting so intriguing. On the one hand, the allure of an entry is hard to overlook. The songs are catchy and immediately captivating. And then, there are social media. In a word, it’s challenging. Nevertheless, learning about the history and background of a country and its representative(s) while also considering prior editions of the contest might be a useful strategy to start with.

The only thing you can really hang your hat on is recent history and obscure patterns and trends that may or may not become evident after further consideration. For example, in 2014, a Dutch duo did very well and this led to an uptick in male and female team submissions in the following years.

Eurovision odds and other betting factors

Eurovision odds Mr Green

At times bending to the will of politics, Eurovision contests have a history of interestingly peculiar voting results. For example, one theory holds that cultural similarities play a large part in determining winners. Entrants that present a more universal image, rather than regional specificity, seem to do much better with a broader voting pool.

As always, follow the bookmakers. Pre-competition odds are a great source of unbiased information and highlight any inefficiencies that may exist among viewers. If it’s unclear to you what metrics are used by bookmakers to establish odds, one thing we can reveal is that predictions are not made based on the song only.

Lastly, when considering national qualifications, the final act quite often gets more points than acts earlier on in the event and they tend to make it to the semi-finals. Odds will be changing up until the order of the acts in the semi-finals and the finale has been published

Eurovision running order

Eurovision contest Mr Green

Continuing on from the previous point, the running order of the competition, especially in the semi-finals and finals are an important thing to consider when evaluating the possibility of a country progressing to the Grand Final.

As an example, when deciding on the running order, organizers of the competition carefully curate the lineup to prevent any overlap between styles of performance. This ensure that each entrant receives the best opportunity to showcase their talent while also meeting the demands of television.

Since 2002, every edition of the Eurovision contest has had a distinct theme. While not immediately evident to viewers, this ‘theme’ has in fact no bearing to most of the songs performed in the contest. A word of advice for anyone hoping to have found an edge.

If you’re looking for a metric, we can’t think of a better one than the winners in recent years:

Year Winning Country Song and Artist
2019 The Netherlands Arcade by Duncan Laurence
2018 Israel Toy by Netta
2017 Portugal Amar pelos dois by Salvador Sobral
2016 Ukraine 1994 by Jamala
2015 Sweden Heroes by Måns Zelmerlöw
2014 Austria Rise Like A Phoenix by Conchita Wurst
2013 Denmark Only Teardrops by Emmelie de Forest
2012 Sweden Euphoria by Loreen
2011 Azerbaijan Running Scared by Ell & Nikki
2010 Germany Satellite by Lena
2009 Norway Fairytale by Alexander Rybak

Outsider Australia: a good bet?

Eurovision betting Mr Green

So you’ve made it this far, and you’re probably wondering why we mentioned Australia as a potential dark horse in this year’s competition. We’re glad you asked. Firstly, Australia earned entry into the competition in a roundabout way. Roughly 9000 KMS away from Europe, it’s most definitely an inspired choice. But one with merit. You see, first participating in 2015, Australia was given entry into the contest for one simple reason: it’s super popular in Australia.

Now a regular contestant, their initial first few years in the competition have been a mixed bag. The sentiment around their entry has largely been negative, even after their spectacular debut which saw them finishing in 5th place. A year later, they clawed their way up to 2nd. In recent years, however, they’ve been less than promised as in 2017 they finished 9th and in 2018 only 20th.

We get it, a fellow Commonwealth nation, Aussies are basically Canadians with funny accents, you’d think they’d be the perfect bet. While interesting, they might be a nation to steer clear of in the short term though.

So, unfortunately, we don’t have a foolproof betting strategy to giveaway. However, if you follow the recommendations contained in this guide, coupled with research and intuition, you’ll be far ahead of the pick when evaluating this year’s entrants. Who knows, you might be singing your own song when all the dust settles at the end!

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